【時事英文】美國、以色列對伊朗發動軍事行動

美國與以色列於德黑蘭時間2月28日早上約9時40分，對伊朗境內多個目標發動大規模空襲，包括首都德黑蘭及全國各地。這場攻擊是美國在中東地區自2003年伊拉克戰爭以來規模最大的軍事部署後展開的行動。

The United States and Israel commenced large-scale airstrikes against multiple targets across Iran — including the capital Tehran — at approximately 9:40 a.m. Tehran time on February 28. The attack was launched following the largest US military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

2月28日：美國、以色開啟對伊朗軍事行動

美國實施經準備打擊──伊朗最高領袖陣亡

伊朗國家媒體隨後確認，最高精神領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊，享年86歲，在針對其德黑蘭辦公室的空襲中身亡。一名伊朗國家電視台主播在播報這則消息時泣不成聲。

Iranian state media subsequently confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, was killed in strikes targeting his office in Tehran. An Iranian state broadcaster delivered the news in tears.

川普總統在凌晨2時30分透過社群媒體 Truth Social 向美國人民宣布此次攻擊，將行動定調為「消除來自伊朗政權的迫在眉睫威脅」。川普表示，「大規模且精準的轟炸」將「在整週內持續進行，或視需要延長」。

President Trump announced the attack to the American people via Truth Social at 2:30 a.m., framing the operation as aimed at "eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime." Trump declared that "heavy and pinpoint bombing" would "continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary."

伊朗平民傷亡爭議

此次衝突中，平民傷亡問題引發國際社會高度關注。

Civilian casualties have drawn intense international scrutiny.

伊朗外交部發言人伊斯梅爾·巴加伊告訴美國國家公共廣播電台（NPR），位於伊朗南部米納布的一所小學遭到空襲，造成158名學生死亡。伊朗方面指控以色列應為此次攻擊負責，而以色列軍方表示不清楚其部隊在該地區有任何行動。

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told NPR that 158 students were killed when an elementary school in Minab, in southern Iran, was struck. Iran blamed Israel for the attack, while the Israeli military stated it was not aware of its forces operating in the area.

美國人權活動家新聞社（HRANA）表示，至少133名伊朗平民已在空襲中喪生。美軍則強調平民保護是「最重要的事項」，並表示正在調查相關報告。

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported that at least 133 Iranian civilians have been killed in the strikes. The US military emphasized that civilian protection was "of utmost importance" and stated it was investigating the reports.

伊朗對美國、以色列展開反擊

伊朗展開大規模反擊，攻擊範圍遠超預期。

Iran launched a sweeping counteroffensive that exceeded expectations in its scope.

伊朗對整個中東地區發動了前所未有的大規模反擊，目標包括以色列以及多個駐紮美軍的波斯灣國家。約旦、卡達、巴林、科威特、阿拉伯聯合大公國及沙烏地阿拉伯均傳出爆炸聲。

Iran struck back with an unprecedented wave of attacks across the Middle East, targeting both Israel and several Persian Gulf countries hosting US military bases. Explosions were reported in Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

一枚飛彈擊中了杜拜傑貝阿里港口。阿拉伯聯合大公國隨即宣布，全國公私立學校及大學自週一起至週三改採遠端上課。

A missile struck the port of Jebel Ali in Dubai. The UAE subsequently announced that all public and private schools and universities nationwide would shift to remote learning from Monday through Wednesday.

沙烏地阿拉伯強烈譴責伊朗對阿聯酋、巴林、卡達、科威特及約旦的攻擊，稱其為嚴重侵犯主權行為，並警告若持續違反國際原則將帶來「嚴重後果」。

Saudi Arabia strongly condemned Iran's assaults on the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan as violations of sovereignty, warning of "dire consequences" if breaches of international principles continued.

3月1日：美國軍事行動未間斷，伊朗局勢升溫

（資料來源：latimes.com）

精準打擊伊朗高層及軍方，美國軍隊也出現戰損

以色列軍方宣布對德黑蘭發動新一輪「精準大規模行動」，以建立空中優勢並「為進軍德黑蘭鋪路」。與此同時，美軍宣佈已有3名士兵陣亡，至少5人重傷，成為「史詩憤怒行動」開始以來首批美軍傷亡。川普表示「可能會有更多」美軍陣亡。

The Israeli military announced a new "precise, large-scale operation" targeting Tehran to establish air superiority and "pave the path to Tehran." Meanwhile, the US military confirmed that three American service members had been killed and at least five seriously wounded — the first US casualties since the launch of "Operation Epic Fury." Trump said there would "likely be more" Americans killed.

川普另聲稱美軍已擊沉9艘伊朗海軍船艦並「基本摧毀」伊朗海軍司令部，惟美國中央司令部未予證實。

Trump also claimed that US forces had sunk nine Iranian naval ships and "largely destroyed" Iran's naval headquarters, though US Central Command would not confirm the claim.

伊朗政治局勢──臨時領導架構

伊朗宣布成立由三人組成的臨時領導委員會，在什葉派神職人員選出新任最高領袖之前負責治理國家。

Iran announced the formation of a three-person temporary leadership council to govern the country under Islamic law until a panel of Shia clerics selects a new supreme leader.

分析師對「消滅最高領袖等同推動政權更迭」的說法提出質疑。美國外交關係委員會指出：「消滅哈梅內伊並不等於推翻政權。伊斯蘭革命衛隊才是政權的核心。」

Analysts questioned the assumption that eliminating the supreme leader equates to regime change. The Council on Foreign Relations noted: "Taking out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not the same as regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the regime."

伊朗總統馬蘇德·佩澤什基安宣稱伊朗有權「復仇」，並稱哈梅內伊的死亡是「對全球穆斯林，尤其是什葉派的宣戰」。

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Iran has a "legitimate right and duty" to seek revenge, calling Khamenei's killing "a declaration of open war on Muslims, especially Shiites, in all corners of the world."

美國與伊朗以外交談判緩和局勢的可能性？

儘管戰況激烈，外交管道並未完全關閉。

Despite the intensity of the fighting, diplomatic channels have not been entirely shut.

川普週日告訴《大西洋》雜誌，伊朗新領導層已表達願意對話，他也同意與對方談判。川普同時感嘆：「他們早點跟我談就好了，本來可以很容易解決的。」

Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday that Iran's new leadership had indicated a desire to talk, and that he had agreed to engage with them. Trump also lamented: "They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner."

英國首相基爾·史塔默召開緊急委員會會議，表示英國「不希望看到衝突進一步升級為更廣泛的區域戰爭」，並重申支持透過外交途徑解決伊朗核問題。

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened an emergency committee meeting, stating that the UK "does not want to see further escalation into a wider regional conflict" and reiterating support for a negotiated solution to Iran's nuclear ambitions.

國際社會對伊朗局勢的反應

（資料來源：latimes.com）

聯合國秘書長安東尼奧·古特雷斯在安理會緊急會議上警告，局勢升級可能帶來「對平民和區域穩定極為嚴重的後果」，呼籲各方「竭盡所能防止進一步升級」。

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned at an emergency Security Council session that further escalation risks consequences of "grave consequences for civilians and regional stability," urging all parties to do "everything possible to prevent a further escalation."

美國國會方面，民主黨參議員提出戰爭授權決議，要求依憲法規定由國會批准宣戰。參議員提姆·凱因直指：「這是一場非法戰爭。」不過即使決議通過，川普幾乎必然會行使否決權。

In the US Congress, Democratic senators introduced a war powers resolution requiring a constitutionally mandated congressional authorization for war. Senator Tim Kaine stated bluntly: "This is an illegal war." However, even if passed, Trump is almost certain to veto it.

在全球各地，伊朗僑民社群反應兩極：倫敦、洛杉磯等城市的部分伊朗裔人士舉牌歡呼，支持消滅哈梅內伊政權；另一方面，巴基斯坦卡拉奇有至少9名抗議者在衝擊美國領事館時身亡。

Reactions among Iranian diaspora communities worldwide were sharply divided. In cities such as London and Los Angeles, some members of the Iranian community held signs celebrating the fall of Khamenei's regime, while in Karachi, Pakistan, at least nine protesters were killed after storming the US Consulate in opposition to the military action.

美國出兵伊朗局勢分析──這場戰爭將走向何處？

伊朗的戰略目標

分析人士指出，伊朗的戰略目標是「對波斯灣國家施加痛苦，迫使這些國家向川普政府施壓，促其盡快結束戰爭」。

Analysts argue that Iran's strategic objective is to "ratchet up the pain on the Gulf states, in order to compel them to apply pressure on the Trump administration to bring a quick end to the war."

這場衝突是否能達成美以兩國所期望的「政權更迭」，目前仍高度不確定。局勢正以驚人的速度持續演變中。

Whether this conflict will achieve the regime change that the US and Israel are seeking remains deeply uncertain. The situation continues to evolve at a remarkable pace.

美國精準打擊後，伊朗已進入「生存模式」

在美國與以色列發動一場前所未有、以推動政權更迭為目標的聯合軍事行動後，伊朗領導層正面臨分析人士所形容的「生死存亡考驗」——這場危機目前既看不到明確的解決方向，也沒有任何低風險的退場途徑。

Following an unprecedented joint military operation aimed at forcing regime change in Iran, the country's leadership is facing what analysts are calling an existential test — one with no clear resolution in sight and no low-risk exit available.

距離去年6月那場為期12天的衝突僅僅過了六個月，美以兩國部隊便再度聯手，對伊朗境內的政權機構與軍事目標展開大規模打擊。以色列軍方確認，伊朗已對以色列發動報復性攻擊。

Just six months after a 12-day conflict in June of last year, US and Israeli forces once again joined hands to launch large-scale strikes against regime institutions and military targets across Iran. The Israeli military confirmed that Iran has since launched retaliatory strikes against Israel.

與此同時，杜拜、多哈、巴林及科威特等地亦傳出疑似伊朗發動的攻擊——上述地點均設有美軍基地或與美國存在結盟關係，區內其他地區同樣有類似事件通報。

Meanwhile, attacks believed to have been carried out by Iran were reported in Dubai, Doha, Bahrain, and Kuwait — all locations hosting US military bases or formally aligned with Washington — with similar incidents reported elsewhere across the region.

美國與以色列為何選擇此刻出兵伊朗？

對於歐洲外交關係委員會（ECFR）資深政策研究員艾莉·格拉邁耶而言，川普總統在行動時機與公開定調上的安排，其政治意圖幾乎昭然若揭。

For Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the timing and public framing of President Trump's operation leave little room for ambiguity about its political intent.

「川普所公布的作戰策略毫無疑問地顯示，他目前的終極目標是推動政權更迭，」她說。「他沒有為伊朗領導層留下任何退路——除了無條件投降。」

"The operational strategy Trump has laid out makes absolutely clear that his ultimate goal — at least for now — is regime change," she said. "He has left Iran's leadership with no way out other than unconditional surrender."

伊朗官方確認哈梅內伊死訊

多家伊朗官方媒體相繼確認最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊已身亡。伊朗國家廣播電視台IRIB於週日上午播報，最高領袖已光榮殉難。伊朗隨即宣布舉國哀悼40天。

Multiple Iranian state media outlets confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's state broadcaster IRIB reported on Sunday morning that the supreme leader had been martyred. Iran subsequently declared 40 days of national mourning.

「這位偉大的學者與聖戰者，以畢生之力致力於伊朗的崛起……他如今已與烈士們並肩，長眠於天堂，」官方的梅爾通訊社發文寫道。

"This great scholar and holy warrior dedicated his entire life to the elevation of Iran… He now rests in paradise alongside the martyrs," the official Mehr News Agency wrote.

此前，美國與以色列已宣稱，哈梅內伊在兩國聯合發動的一系列空襲中遭到擊斃。

The announcement followed declarations by the United States and Israel that Khamenei had been killed in a coordinated wave of joint airstrikes.

伊朗戰火延燒對全球油市的衝擊

（資料來源：financialexpress.com）

這場衝突已開始對全球能源與金融市場形成衝擊波。分析人士警告，無論伊朗是否持續發動反擊，或區域內其他勢力捲入，市場劇烈震盪幾乎難以避免——尤其是能源相關商品，以及橫跨歐亞的地緣政治風險連帶效應。

The conflict is already sending shockwaves through global energy and financial markets. Analysts warn that regardless of whether Iran continues its counterstrikes or other regional actors are drawn in, significant market volatility is now almost unavoidable — particularly in energy commodities — as geopolitical risk radiates outward across Eurasia.

目前最為關鍵的變數，在於霍爾木茲海峽是否遭到封鎖。伊朗過去曾在軍事演習中模擬關閉該海峽，一旦在週一市場開盤前確認封鎖成真，且情勢演變為長期對峙，對全球能源供應與市場信心將是沉重打擊，油價首當其衝。

The most immediate and critical variable is whether the Strait of Hormuz will be blockaded. Iran has previously simulated a closure of the strait during military exercises, and any confirmed blockade before markets open on Monday — especially if it threatens to become a prolonged standoff — would deal a severe blow to global energy supply and investor confidence, with oil prices bearing the most immediate impact.

霍爾木茲海峽每日承載全球約20%的石油運輸量。若封鎖持續，不僅將推動國際原油價格大幅飆升，更可能引發全球航運、保險費率及供應鏈的連鎖中斷——其衝擊將遠遠超出中東範圍。

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply. A sustained closure would not only send crude prices sharply higher, but could also trigger cascading disruptions to global shipping, war insurance rates, and supply chains — consequences that would be felt far beyond the borders of the Middle East.

美國總統川普：未來有「幾位優秀候選人」可望接掌伊朗

川普在 Truth Social 發文寫道：「史上最邪惡的人之一哈梅內伊已死。這不僅是伊朗人民所求的正義，更是全體美國人民，以及全球所有曾遭哈梅內伊與其嗜血政權殺害或迫害者的正義。他無法逃脫我們高度精密的情報追蹤系統；再加上與以色列的緊密協作，他與同時被擊斃的其他領導人均已無處遁形。」

In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: "One of the most evil people in history, Khamenei, is dead. This is justice — not only for the Iranian people, but for every great American and for all those around the world who were killed or harmed by Khamenei and his bloodthirsty regime. He could not escape our highly sophisticated intelligence and tracking systems; and with our close cooperation with Israel, neither he nor the other leaders eliminated alongside him had anywhere to hide."

川普進一步表示，「猛烈而精準的轟炸將持續進行，本週內不會中斷，直至中東實現和平為止」，並稱此刻是「伊朗人民奪回自己國家的最佳時機」。

Trump added that "heavy and pinpoint bombing will continue, uninterrupted, throughout the week or until peace is achieved in the Middle East," describing the current moment as "the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country."

他還聲稱，伊斯蘭革命衛隊、正規軍及其他安全與警察部隊中，已有許多人「不願繼續作戰，並主動尋求豁免」，並警告道：「現在選擇豁免還來得及——日後他們將只剩死刑一途。」

He further claimed that many members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military, and other security and police forces "no longer want to fight and are seeking amnesty," issuing a stark warning: "Right now they can have amnesty — later, they will only face the death penalty."

川普同時表達希望，革命衛隊與警察能「與伊朗愛國者和平融合、攜手合作」，共同推動國家重振昔日榮光，並認為這一進程「應當很快展開」——因為不僅哈梅內伊已死，「整個國家在短短一天之內便已遭受重創，幾近徹底摧毀」。

Trump expressed hope that the IRGC and police would "peacefully merge with Iranian patriots" to help restore the country to its former greatness, suggesting the process "should begin quickly" — given that not only is Khamenei dead, but "the entire country has suffered tremendous damage — one could even say near-total destruction — in a single day."

在接受哥倫比亞廣播公司（CBS）電話採訪時，被問及他認為目前誰在掌管伊朗，川普回答：「我非常清楚是誰，但現在不便透露。」當進一步被問及是否屬意特定人選接班時，他表示：「是的，我想是這樣——有幾位相當不錯的候選人。」但他未進一步說明所指為何人。

In a separate phone interview with CBS News, when asked who he believed was currently in charge in Iran, Trump said: "I know very well who it is, but I can't say right now." When further pressed on whether he preferred a particular figure to take power, he replied: "Yes, I think so — there are some very good candidates," without elaborating further.