最近，美國、以色列和伊朗又吸引了全球的關注，就像世仇一樣。但其實這三家的關係可能要顛覆你的想像——遠的不說，2600年前的巴比倫之囚時期，伊朗曾解救以色列，還幫他們復國，在耶路撒冷重修第二聖殿。哪怕是到了50年前的1970年代，這兩家都還是如膠似漆的盟友。可怎麼現在就鬧成這個樣子？
Recently, the United States, Israel, and Iran have once again captured global attention, appearing to be bitter enemies. However, the relationship between these three nations might completely overturn your expectations. To give just one example from the distant past: during the Babylonian Captivity 2,600 years ago, Persia (ancient Iran) actually rescued the Israelites, helped them restore their nation, and rebuilt the Second Temple in Jerusalem. Even as recently as the 1970s—just 50 years ago—Israel and Iran were still extremely close allies. So how did things deteriorate to the current state of hostility?
波斯的唐太宗：百年前伊朗變局
（資料來源：christianbaghai.medium.com）
時間回到100年前的1925年。有一位叫禮薩汗的軍官兼首相，人氣超高，最後被加冕為「波斯沙阿沙」——也就是「萬王之王」的意思。
Let's go back 100 years to 1925. A military officer and prime minister named Reza Khan was incredibly popular, and eventually he was crowned "Shahanshah of Persia"—which basically means "King of Kings."
在古代，波斯文化圈有很多統治者都用「沙」這個頭銜。像是被成吉思汗滅掉的花剌子模沙，還有被耶律大石打敗的土庫曼沙。這個「沙」的概念，其實跟我們歷史上的「可汗」很像。吉利可汗、阿史那可汗，這些都只是小王小汗；真正能稱得上「萬汗之汗」的，是中國皇帝李世民——他同時還兼任草原上的「天可汗」。所以當禮薩汗被加冕為「沙阿沙」的時候，這意味著什麼？他基本上就是一百年前的「波斯版唐太宗」。
In ancient times, many rulers in the Persian world used the title "Shah." There was the Shah of Khwarezm, who was wiped out by Genghis Khan, and the Shah of Turkmenistan, who was defeated by Yelü Dashi. This concept of "Shah" is actually quite similar to "Khan" in our history. Jieli Khan and Ashina Khan were just minor kings, but the one true "Khan of Khans" was Chinese Emperor Li Shimin—who also held the title of "Heavenly Khan" of the steppes. So when Reza Khan was crowned "Shahanshah," what did that mean? He was essentially the "Persian version of Tang Taizong" from a century ago.
他建立了巴勒維王朝，雄心壯志就是要讓波斯再次偉大。但問題來了——當時的波斯根本就是英國和俄國的角力場。俄國想翻過高加索山，穿越波斯，直通溫暖的印度洋；英國呢？說什麼都不讓。
He established the Pahlavi Dynasty with one grand ambition: to make Persia great again. But here's the problem—Persia at that time was basically a battleground between Britain and Russia. Russia wanted to cross the Caucasus Mountains, cut through Persia, and reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. Britain? They absolutely refused to let that happen.
不過禮薩汗運氣還不錯。等他登基的時候，俄國已經變天了，變成了蘇聯。蘇聯為了拉攏波斯，把之前搶走的領土全部歸還，那些不平等條約也全部作廢。俄國人這邊安撫住了，禮薩汗終於可以騰出手來，專心對付英國。
Luckily for Reza Khan, by the time he took the throne, Russia had already transformed into the Soviet Union. To win Persia over, the Soviets returned all the territories they had seized and canceled all those unequal treaties. With the Russians pacified, Reza Khan could finally focus on dealing with Britain.
但英國跟俄國完全不一樣。英國對陸地領土根本沒興趣，他們一心只想稱霸海洋。而且他們早就透過控制阿曼，把荷莫茲海峽握在手裡，壟斷了整個波斯灣的貿易。再加上左邊有英屬印度，右邊有英屬美索不達米亞——一個小小的波斯高原，憑什麼跟大英帝國叫板？
But Britain was a completely different story. They had zero interest in land—their only obsession was ruling the seas. They had already taken control of the Strait of Hormuz through Oman and monopolized all trade in the Persian Gulf. Plus, they had British India on one side and British Mesopotamia on the other. So what chance did a tiny Persian Plateau have against the mighty British Empire?
成也石油，敗也石油：伊朗的石油博弈
（資料來源：caspianpost.com）
那麼，禮薩汗究竟有什麼籌碼？答案是石油。
So what leverage did Reza Khan actually have? The answer is oil.
當時一戰剛結束，各大國都已經看出來了：石油將會成為未來工業的命脈。美國那邊，1911年才剛強制拆分了壟斷石油市場的洛克菲勒集團；而英國更早，1908年就在伊朗發現了當時全世界最大的油田，還專門成立了一家「英波石油公司」——沒錯，這就是今天BP石油的前身。
World War I had just ended, and all the major powers could see that oil was going to become the lifeblood of industry. Over in America, they had just broken up the Rockefeller monopoly in 1911. Britain got there even earlier—they discovered the world's largest oil field in Iran back in 1908 and set up the Anglo-Persian Oil Company. That's right, this is the company that would later become BP.
到了1925年，英波石油的日產量已經達到20萬桶。聽起來好像還好？但你要知道，當時全世界一天的石油總產量也不過270萬桶而已。這裡面有70%——差不多200萬桶——都在美國；剩下的70萬桶由全球其他國家去分，而伊朗一個國家就占了將近20萬桶。這就是禮薩汗手裡的王牌，也是他敢跟英國叫板的底氣。
By 1925, Anglo-Persian was pumping out 200,000 barrels a day. That might not sound like much, but consider this: the entire world's daily oil production was only about 2.7 million barrels at the time. Seventy percent of that—roughly 2 million barrels—came from the United States. The remaining 700,000 barrels were shared among all other countries, and Iran alone accounted for nearly 200,000 of those. This was Reza Khan's trump card—and the reason he dared to challenge Britain.
英國開始有點緊張了。讓他們緊張的不只是石油本身，還有一個更大的問題：這場牌局不是兩個人在玩，而是三家鬥地主。禮薩汗準備打出的這張石油牌，背後還有一個遙相呼應的盟友——德國，希特勒的納粹德國。
Britain was getting nervous, and it wasn't just about the oil. There was a bigger problem: this wasn't a two-player game anymore. It was more like a three-way poker match. The oil card Reza Khan was about to play had a partner backing him up from afar—Germany. Nazi Germany, to be precise.
雖然禮薩汗不會公開宣布跟希特勒結盟，但他在1935年做了一件跟希特勒互相呼應的事——他向全世界宣布：「以後請不要再叫我們『波斯』了，我們的新名字叫做『亞利安人的土地』——伊朗。」說實話，波斯人確實是血統非常純正的亞利安人，學術上叫「原始印歐人」，這點倒是沒問題。就這樣，全世界很快就接受了這個新名字——伊朗。
Now, Reza Khan wasn't going to openly announce an alliance with Hitler. But in 1935, he did something that clearly echoed Hitler's ideology—he announced to the world: "Please stop calling us 'Persia.' Our new name is 'Land of the Aryans'—Iran." To be fair, Persians really were ethnically Aryan—or "Proto-Indo-European" in academic terms—so this wasn't technically wrong. And just like that, the world quickly accepted the new name: Iran.
與此同時，禮薩汗也在國內大力煽動民族主義情緒，隨時準備對那些外國列強出手。
At the same time, Reza Khan was stirring up intense nationalist sentiment at home, preparing to take on the foreign powers at any moment.
第二次世界大戰：伊朗的豪賭
（資料來源：bbc.com）
二戰爆發之後，禮薩汗選擇保持中立。他的如意算盤是學美國——對交戰雙方都說：「想要石油？可以啊，但我不收紙鈔，只收黃金。」可惜啊，天不從人願。
After World War II broke out, Reza Khan chose to stay neutral. His plan was to copy America's playbook—tell both sides: "You want oil? Sure, but I don't take cash. Gold only." Unfortunately, things didn't go his way.
第一個問題是，二戰前美國居然在沙烏地阿拉伯發現了一個比伊朗更大的油田。這下子，禮薩汗手裡那20萬桶的籌碼就沒以前那麼硬氣了。
First problem: right before the war, America discovered an even bigger oil field in Saudi Arabia. Suddenly, Reza Khan's 200,000 barrels didn't carry the same weight anymore.
第二個問題是，英波石油公司也不是好惹的。雖然英國在二戰中被打得焦頭爛額，但英波石油聯合了另外六家石油巨頭，組成了一個叫「石油七姊妹」的聯盟——兩家英國公司加五家美國公司，照樣把伊朗的石油控制得死死的。
Second problem: the Anglo-Persian Oil Company was not to be messed with. Even though Britain was getting pounded during the war, Anglo-Persian teamed up with six other oil giants to form an alliance called the "Seven Sisters"—two British companies and five American ones—and they kept Iran's oil locked down tight.
回到故事本身。這時候保持中立的禮薩汗，其實在暗中等一個機會。什麼機會？就是納粹德國的「乙二醇計畫」——一個打通巴庫、穿越高加索山脈的軍事行動。表面上看，納粹是為了搶奪高加索的油田；但你仔細想想，如果納粹真的打通了高加索山，接下來會跟誰接壤？到那時候，英波石油公司還掐得住禮薩汗嗎？如果禮薩汗在那個節骨眼上徹底倒向軸心國，歷史搞不好真的會被改寫。
Back to the story. While maintaining his neutral stance, Reza Khan was secretly waiting for an opportunity. What opportunity? Nazi Germany's "Operation Edelweiss"—a military campaign to break through Baku and cross the Caucasus Mountains. On the surface, the Nazis wanted the oil fields in the Caucasus. But think about it: if they had actually punched through those mountains, who would they have bordered next? Would Anglo-Persian still be able to keep Reza Khan in check? If Reza Khan had fully sided with the Axis powers at that moment, history might have been rewritten.
但還好，歷史沒有如果。禮薩汗雖然跟納粹眉來眼去，但最後還是沒有真的打出這張底牌。
Fortunately, history doesn't deal in "what ifs." Although Reza Khan flirted with the Nazis, he never actually played that final card.
現在回過頭來想想，為什麼那部電影裡的納粹軍官要學波斯語？因為二戰結束後，真的有一大批納粹軍官逃到了伊朗。而且禮薩汗還硬得很，堅決拒絕把他們交出去。
Now think about this: why did that Nazi officer in the movie need to learn Persian? Because after World War II, a whole bunch of Nazi officers actually fled to Iran. And Reza Khan stubbornly refused to hand them over.
很明顯，你敢這樣玩，那離下台也不遠了。果然，1941年，二戰打得最激烈的時候，英國和蘇聯聯手出兵伊朗，逼著這位不安分的禮薩汗退位。從此，伊朗徹底變成了盟軍的補給線。
讓波斯再次偉大：美國佈局伊朗
（資料來源：wikipedia.org）
但禮薩汗「讓波斯再次偉大」的夢想，就這樣結束了嗎？並沒有。
So did Reza Khan's dream of "making Persia great again" just die like that? Not at all.
因為二戰之後，有個坐在美洲大陸上的暴發戶崛起了。這傢伙靠著賣石油、賣軍火，而且堅持「只收黃金不收紙鈔」的策略，一夜之間就成了新的世界老大。他的名字叫——美國。
After World War II, a new player rose to power from across the Atlantic. This guy made his fortune selling oil and weapons, and he insisted on a strict policy: "Gold only, no cash." Overnight, he became the new boss of the world. His name? The United States of America.
二戰結束後，美國一手建立了布雷頓森林體系，用超過22,000噸的黃金儲備，把全世界的貨幣都掌控在手裡。另一手呢，他還要抓住未來世界工業的命脈——石油。當時全球第二大產油國沙烏地阿拉伯已經被美國收編了，那第一大產油國伊朗，怎麼可能讓他跑回英國或俄國的懷抱？
After the war, America did two things. First, they created the Bretton Woods system, using over 22,000 tons of gold reserves to control the world's currencies. Second, they needed to grab hold of the future lifeblood of global industry—oil. They had already locked down Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest oil producer. So there was no way they were going to let Iran, the number one producer, fall back into the arms of Britain or Russia.
想都不用想。美國就這樣霸氣地問全世界：「我覺得禮薩汗是個好人欸，我覺得他兒子應該回去帶領伊朗人民，讓波斯再次偉大。大家有意見嗎？」而當時的世界早就被二戰打得滿目瘡痍，急需美金救命，大家當然異口同聲地回答：「沒有沒有沒有沒有。」
It wasn't even a question. America just asked the world with total confidence: "You know what? I think Reza Khan was actually a good guy. And I think his son should go back and lead the Iranian people to make Persia great again. Anyone have a problem with that?" The world, still in ruins from the war and desperate for American dollars, answered in perfect unison: "Nope, nope, nope, nope."
就這樣，禮薩汗的兒子巴勒維，成了美國手中的一顆棋子，同時也成了伊朗人民的沙王。
And just like that, Reza Khan's son—Mohammad Reza Pahlavi—became a pawn in America's game, and also the new Shah of Iran.
但問題來了——這個兒子會比他老爸更聽話嗎？
But here's the real question: would this son be more obedient than his father?
以色列建國：伊朗挺以美傻眼
（資料來源：wikipedia.org）
故事繼續發展，接下來就是第二個大謎團了。
The story continues, and now we come to the second big mystery.
巴勒維上台之後，美國還是不太放心，心裡盤算著：「你們中東石油多得流油，一個伊朗、一個沙烏地阿拉伯。雖然一個是什葉派、一個是遜尼派，一個是整天想著重建帝國榮光的波斯人，一個是天天唸著穆罕默德的阿拉伯人——短時間內好像不太可能聯手對付我。但說到底，你們全都是穆斯林啊！萬一哪天冒出一個天才教法學家，把你們全部整合在一起，那我不就麻煩大了？」
After Pahlavi took power, America still wasn't completely at ease. They were thinking: "You've got oil gushing all over the Middle East—Iran on one side, Saudi Arabia on the other. Sure, one is Shia and the other is Sunni. One is a Persian dreaming of restoring imperial glory, and the other is an Arab who prays to Muhammad five times a day. They probably won't team up against me anytime soon. But at the end of the day, you're all Muslims! What if some genius Islamic scholar shows up one day and unites you all? Then I'd be in serious trouble."
怎麼管理羊群呢？英國人和蒙古人當年都是這樣玩的——一定要讓羊群之間互相爭鬥，這樣牧羊人才能睡得安穩。所以中東這邊，我們還需要一條能讓羊群打架的「牧羊犬」。
So how do you manage a flock of sheep? The British and the Mongols figured this out long ago—you have to keep the sheep fighting among themselves. That way, the shepherd can sleep peacefully. So in the Middle East, we need a "sheepdog" that can keep the sheep at each other's throats.
剛好，當年英國人為了對付鄂圖曼土耳其，不是翻出了一本三千多年前的《舊約聖經》嗎？不是跟猶太人說：「這裡其實是你們的應許之地，你們本來就應該叫以色列人，現在讓你們重返迦南，按照上帝的旨意復國」嗎？
And what do you know—the British had already laid the groundwork. Remember how they dug up that 3,000-year-old Old Testament to deal with the Ottoman Turks? Remember how they told the Jews: "This land is actually your Promised Land. You're supposed to be called Israelites. Now go back to Canaan and restore your nation according to God's will"?
太好了，美國國內現在也有一大票猶太人，而且個個超級有錢。那我們乾脆支持他們去以色列建國，直接在阿拉伯世界的正中央「引爆」一顆炸彈。這樣讓以色列和伊朗互相牽制，中東就穩了，石油也就安全了。
Perfect. America now had a huge Jewish population, and they were all super wealthy. So why not support them in establishing Israel—basically dropping a bomb right in the middle of the Arab world? That way, Israel and Iran could keep each other in check, the Middle East would be stable, and the oil would be secure.
果然，1948年，以色列宣布要在巴勒斯坦人的土地上、在阿拉伯世界的心臟地帶建國。周圍的阿拉伯國家一聽就炸鍋了，馬上跟以色列打了起來。
And that's exactly what happened. In 1948, Israel announced it would establish a nation on Palestinian land, right in the heart of the Arab world. The surrounding Arab countries went absolutely ballistic and immediately started fighting Israel.
這時候，美國就像老師出考題一樣，看向了自己的棋子巴勒維。巴勒維超級上道，馬上開始講古：先是講2700多年前北以色列王國怎麼被滅亡的、第一次大流亡的時候以色列人怎麼跑到波斯、怎麼在呼羅珊這塊土地上跟波斯人血脈相融的故事。接著又講2500多年前，南邊的猶太王國怎麼變成「巴比倫之囚」、耶路撒冷聖殿怎麼被巴比倫人摧毀，後來又怎麼被崛起的波斯大帝居魯士拯救、還護送他們回耶路撒冷重建第二聖殿的故事。
At this moment, America looked at their pawn Pahlavi like a teacher giving a pop quiz. And Pahlavi totally got it. He immediately launched into a history lesson: first, he talked about how the Northern Kingdom of Israel was destroyed over 2,700 years ago, how the Israelites fled to Persia during the first great exile, and how they blended with the Persian people in the land of Khorasan. Then he talked about how the Southern Kingdom of Judah became the "Babylonian Captivity" 2,500 years ago, how the Babylonians destroyed the Temple in Jerusalem, and how they were later rescued by the rising Persian Emperor Cyrus the Great, who even escorted them back to Jerusalem to rebuild the Second Temple.
這一長串講下來，美國都聽傻了，轉頭問以色列：「真的假的？」以色列舉起《舊約聖經》說：「千真萬確！而且我們最盛大的節日——普珥節——就是為了紀念當年波斯王后救命之恩的！」
After this whole spiel, America was stunned. They turned to Israel and asked: "Is this for real?" Israel held up the Old Testament and said: "Absolutely! In fact, our most important holiday—Purim—exists specifically to commemorate the Persian queen who saved our lives!"
哇塞，美國還沒反應過來呢，1948年，伊朗就率先衝破阿拉伯世界的重重阻力，第一個承認以色列建國。
Whoa. Before America could even process all this, Iran had already broken through all the resistance from the Arab world and became the first to recognize the State of Israel in 1948.
美國突然有點慌了——等等，這不是牧羊犬要跟羊混在一起了嗎？這會有什麼後果？想不通、搞不懂。難道是為了更好地管另一群羊？總之應該不會聯手來咬主人吧！？
America suddenly got a little nervous. Wait a minute—isn't the sheepdog getting a bit too cozy with the sheep? What's going to happen here? They couldn't figure it out. Maybe it would help manage the other flock better? At least they wouldn't team up to bite the shepherd, right?
伊斯蘭革命：伊朗神學家的逆襲
（資料來源：cnn.com）
巴勒維越來越不聽話，美國決定換人。但接下來發生的事，連美國自己都沒想到。
Pahlavi was becoming increasingly disobedient, and America decided to find a replacement. But what happened next caught even America off guard.
1978年，伊朗國內爆發了一場革命。領頭的是誰？不是什麼民主派、不是什麼自由派，而是一群伊斯蘭教士。他們的領袖叫何乎梅尼，是什葉派最高等級的神學家。
In 1978, a revolution erupted in Iran. Who was leading it? Not democrats, not liberals, but a group of Islamic clerics. Their leader was Ayatollah Khomeini, the highest-ranking theologian in Shia Islam.
這些教士為什麼要革命？因為他們討厭巴勒維搞的那一套「西化改革」。什麼讓女人投票、什麼讓農民擁有土地、什麼用科學取代伊斯蘭教法——在他們眼中，這全都是背叛真主。他們要的是一個「神權至上」的伊朗，一切都要按照古蘭經來。
Why were these clerics revolting? Because they despised Pahlavi's "Westernization reforms." Letting women vote, giving peasants land ownership, replacing Islamic law with modern science—in their eyes, all of this was a betrayal of God. What they wanted was a "theocratic" Iran, where everything followed the Quran.
美國這時候在想什麼？他們覺得：巴勒維這傢伙越來越不聽話，搞石油國有化、搞歐佩克減產、還偷偷研發導彈和核武。不如就讓這場革命把他趕下台，換個聽話的上來。
What was America thinking at the time? They figured: This Pahlavi guy is getting too unruly—oil nationalization, OPEC production cuts, secretly developing missiles and nuclear weapons. Why not let this revolution sweep him out and bring in someone more cooperative?
於是1979年，何梅尼從法國流亡歸來，萬民夾道歡迎。巴勒維被迫逃亡海外，最後客死埃及。伊朗從此變成了一個「伊斯蘭共和國」，由神學家說了算。
So in 1979, Khomeini returned from his exile in France to a hero's welcome. Pahlavi was forced to flee and eventually died in exile in Egypt. Iran transformed into an "Islamic Republic," ruled by theologians.
但美國很快就發現大事不妙——何梅尼根本不是什麼「聽話的傀儡」，他是真的相信那一套神學理論。他把美國叫做「大撒旦」，把以色列叫做「必須從地圖上抹去的國家」。狂熱的學生甚至衝進美國大使館，把外交官抓去當人質。
But America quickly realized they had made a terrible miscalculation. Khomeini wasn't some obedient puppet—he was a true believer in his theological ideology. He called America the "Great Satan" and declared Israel "a regime that must be wiped off the map." Fanatical students even stormed the American embassy and took diplomats hostage.
從那一刻起，美國和伊朗就變成了死對頭。而曾經跟伊朗如膠似漆的以色列？也從盟友變成了不共戴天的仇人。
From that moment on, America and Iran became mortal enemies. And Israel, once Iran's closest ally? They went from best friends to sworn enemies.
2025 年十二日戰爭：伊朗元氣大傷
（資料來源：barrons.com）
時間快轉到2025年。這四十多年來，以色列和伊朗的仇恨越積越深。
Fast forward to 2025. Over the past forty-plus years, the hatred between Israel and Iran had been building up.
伊朗扶持了一大堆代理人武裝——黎巴嫩的真主黨、加薩的哈瑪斯、葉門的乎西武裝——專門跟以色列作對。而以色列呢？一直在暗殺伊朗的核子科學家、破壞伊朗的核設施，就是不讓伊朗造出原子彈。
Iran had funded a whole network of proxy militias—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen—all dedicated to attacking Israel. Israel, meanwhile, had been assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotaging nuclear facilities, determined to prevent Iran from ever building an atomic bomb.
2023年10月，哈瑪斯突襲以色列，雙方爆發大戰。以色列一路打進加薩，順便把真主黨的領導層也清洗了一遍，連敘利亞的乎阿乎薩德政權都垮台了。伊朗在中東經營了幾十年的「抵抗軸心」，幾乎被打得七零八落。
In October 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, triggering a major war. Israel pushed deep into Gaza and wiped out much of Hezbollah's leadership along the way. Even the Assad regime in Syria collapsed. Iran's carefully cultivated "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East was practically dismantled.
2025年6月13日，以色列終於對伊朗本土動手了。他們發動了一次大規模空襲，目標是伊朗的核設施、軍事基地、還有那些高級將領和核子科學家。伊朗也不是吃素的，發射了超過550枚彈道飛彈和1000多架無人機反擊，打中了以色列的民宅、醫院、軍事基地。
On June 13, 2025, Israel finally struck Iran directly. They launched a massive air campaign targeting nuclear facilities, military bases, and senior commanders and nuclear scientists. Iran hit back with over 550 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 suicide drones, striking residential areas, a hospital, and military installations in Israel.
6月22日，美國也加入戰局，轟炸了伊朗三個核子設施。伊朗不甘示弱，向卡達的美軍基地發射飛彈。
On June 22, the United States joined the fight, bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated by launching missiles at a US military base in Qatar.
這場仗打了整整12天，造成伊朗至少657人死亡、超過2500人受傷。最後在美國總統川普的斡旋下，雙方在6月24日停火。
The war lasted exactly 12 days, killing at least 657 people in Iran and wounding over 2,500. Finally, under pressure from US President Donald Trump, both sides agreed to a ceasefire on June 24.
但這場戰爭對伊朗的打擊是毀滅性的。他們的核計畫被嚴重破壞、防空系統被摧毀、高級軍官和科學家被大量擊殺。更糟糕的是，戰爭暴露了伊朗在情報和軍事上的巨大漏洞。
But the war dealt a devastating blow to Iran. Their nuclear program was severely damaged, air defenses destroyed, and senior military officers and scientists killed in large numbers. Even worse, the war exposed massive gaps in Iran's intelligence and military capabilities.
2026 年經濟大崩潰：伊朗再次面臨變天？
（資料來源：iiss.org）
戰爭結束後，伊朗的經濟開始崩潰。
After the war, Iran's economy began to collapse.
2025年9月，聯合國重新對伊朗實施制裁。加上戰爭的破壞、石油出口受阻、基礎設施損毀，伊朗的貨幣「里亞爾」開始瘋狂貶值。2025年1月，1美元大約換70萬里亞爾；到了2025年底，1美元已經飆到140萬里亞爾。貨幣貶值了一倍。
In September 2025, the United Nations reimposed sanctions on Iran. Combined with war damage, blocked oil exports, and destroyed infrastructure, Iran's currency—the rial—went into freefall. In January 2025, one US dollar was worth about 700,000 rials. By late 2025, it had skyrocketed to 1.4 million rials. The currency had lost half its value.
這意味著什麼？意味著物價飛漲。食品價格比一年前漲了72%，通貨膨脹率超過52%。普通老百姓連飯都快吃不起了。
What does that mean? It means prices went through the roof. Food prices jumped 72% compared to the previous year, and inflation exceeded 52%. Ordinary people could barely afford to eat.
2025年12月28日，德黑蘭大巴札的商人們終於受不了了。他們關閉店鋪，走上街頭抗議。本來只是抱怨經濟問題，但很快，抗議的口號就變了——「獨裁者去死！」「哈米尼下台！」「巴勒維萬歲！」
On December 28, 2025, the merchants of Tehran's Grand Bazaar finally had enough. They shut their shops and took to the streets in protest. At first, they were just complaining about the economy. But soon, the slogans changed: "Death to the dictator!" "Khamenei must go!" "Long live Pahlavi!"
沒錯，他們開始喊出流亡在美國的前王儲禮薩·巴勒維的名字。45年前被趕走的王室，現在又被人民想起來了。
That's right—they started chanting the name of Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince living in exile in America. The royal family that was driven out 45 years ago was suddenly being remembered again.
抗議迅速蔓延到全國31個省份。學生、工人、司機、退休人員全部加入。政府切斷了網路，派出安全部隊鎮壓。根據報導，截至2026年1月中旬，已經有超過一萬人在抗議中喪生。
The protests spread rapidly to all 31 provinces. Students, workers, truck drivers, and retirees all joined in. The government cut off the internet and sent in security forces to crack down. According to reports, by mid-January 2026, over 10,000 people had been killed in the protests.
伊朗正站在歷史的十字路口。這個統治了45年的神權政權，會不會像當年的巴勒維王朝一樣轟然倒塌？沒人知道。但有一件事是確定的——從2600年前居魯士大帝拯救以色列人，到今天以色列轟炸伊朗；從50年前的親密盟友，到今天的不共戴天——這個世界的劇本，永遠比我們想像的更加荒謬。
Iran now stands at a historic crossroads. Will this theocratic regime that has ruled for 45 years collapse just like the Pahlavi dynasty did before it? No one knows. But one thing is certain: from Cyrus the Great rescuing the Israelites 2,600 years ago to Israel bombing Iran today; from being the closest of allies 50 years ago to being sworn enemies now—the script of this world is always more absurd than we could ever imagine.
